We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. Okay. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. That is incorrect. LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. What about the idea of a water shortage? Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. It took 16 years for it to fill. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 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In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. The river also crosses over the US-Mexico border and two Mexican states, Baja California and Sonora. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? They werent able to come up with an agreement. New York, NY 10004. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. Why is Lake Mead drying up? During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. The two. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. The challenges are really hard, Fleck said. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. Climatologist Jon Meyer with the Utah Climate Center said the number that captures the severity for him is 12 inches. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. If the outlet tubes cant meet the reservoirs needs, she said, the flow of water in the Grand Canyon itself could be reduced to a trickle. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. Down the Colorado River lies Lake Mead, which is also seeing lower water levels than ever before. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. 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An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. Created by Bluecadet. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. The story has been updated to reflect this information. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . You cant do that with groundwater. Even lower, at 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits "dead pool," at which point water can no longer pass through the dam by the power of gravity. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. And this is just the beginning of what. Record-breaking high temperatures dragged well into fall. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Thats important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. Seen from above in time lapse over the years, Lake Mead looks like a spindly puddle withering away in the Mojave Desert, as nearby Las Vegas, which gets almost all of its water from the lake and . . Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. It survives, she said. The . So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. Secondly, Phoenix does not get it's water from Lake Powell. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. Now what? And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. It can hold 9.3 trillion gallons of water at its peak and reach an elevation of 1,220 feet above sea level. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. Follow me on Substack: https://geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geographic_geoff/Listen to the podcast: https:. What are the effects of climate change? The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. More. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. JOHN DANKOSKY: Local science stories of national significance. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . The basin is made up of portions of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power.
